The BBC referred to them as “heavyweights”, as the two main candidates that ran against President Bola Tinubu in 2023, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, joined several others to form the African Democratic Congress with an eye on unseating the president in the 2027 presidential (s)election.
It remains a mystery why those pitched up against Tinubu decided to call themselves “African” instead of “Nigerian”. It’s not like they have any intentions of adopting a pan-African outlook. Maybe they were inspired by the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa.
The first signs that the ADC doesn’t represent change from the tried and failed can be found in the characters lined up behind the two principals. These include serial turncoat Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of Kaduna State, Rotimi Amaechi, once a two-term governor of Rivers State under the banner of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) before switching to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), and being rewarded as transport minister for eight years, and former senate president David Mark. With these type of friends, who needs enemies?
Tommy Docherty, when he was manager of Aston Villa was once told by chairman Doug Ellis, “don’t worry, Tommy, I am right behind you”. To which Docherty replied: “I would rather have you in front of me, Mr Chairman” (where he could be seen). El Rufai is the type of character no sensible person would want behind them. Former president Olusegun Obasanjo said of the man he made minister of the Federal Capital Territory: “I recognised his weaknesses; the worst being his inability to be loyal to anybody or any issue for long, but only to Nasir El Rufai”.
El Rufai and Obi: Paraphrasing Chris Brown, this guy ain’t loyal.
Questionable characters of questionable loyalty, only united by their desire to unseat the president for questionable reasons that have little to do with Nigerian progress, considering their massive contributions to the country’s underdevelopment, seem to be a recipe for failure. Atiku started off as vice president under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and has jumped ship several times to the Action Congress of Nigeria, APC and back to PDP and now ADC all because he thinks the presidency is his birth-right.
Obi started off as governor of Anambra State under the auspices of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), claiming that the day he left APGA would be the day he left politics. He duly left APGA for PDP, then left PDP for the Labour Party and now with the ADC. He ran as Atiku’s number two in 2019. Both are in the same party again but who will play second fiddle in 2027?
This is exactly where the coalition starts to disintegrate. Obi has a strong following among Nigeria’s urban youth, particularly in the south. Atiku has a considerable financial war chest from decades of looting public funds. There is no scenario in which Atiku agrees to let Obi be the presidential candidate for the ADC. This automatically dilutes the electoral strength posed by Obi’s followers aka “Obidients”. Many won’t support or vote for Obi as a junior partner in an Atiku ticket.
All these permutations will be rendered irrelevant because Tinubu is leaving nothing to chance and would have finalised plans for holding on to power by any means necessary. The very unpopular and widely disliked incumbent managed to pull off a fraudulent victory with the help of compromised electoral commission officials in 2023 when he didn’t have federal might at his disposal, but had significant financial muscle from his control of the Lagos State treasury from eight years as governor from 1999 and having his puppets in charge since 2007.
Anyone that thinks Tinubu is going to be dislodged from power now he is president, with all the instruments of state power and largesse at his disposal, is engaged in self-delusion. Despite widespread acknowledgment that his first term has been a resounding failure with misery, insecurity and hopelessness stalking the land, Tinubu will be returned for a second term in flagrant disregard of the will of Nigerian voters.
The ADC and most Nigerians will inevitably scream blue murder, challenge the result in the courts, but a judiciary selling judgments to the highest bidder knows which side its bread is buttered. After the sound and the fury, Tinubu will have his second term by crook instead of hook and the ADC will be left to lick its wounds. Knowing their turncoat tendencies, some will re-join the Tinubu bandwagon and the looting continues. Alooter continua as the Nigerian saying goes.
