A top financial backer of the opposition coalition against President Bola Tinubu has said that if the president attempts to retain power in 2027 via rigged elections, contingency plans are in place for a very violent response.
The wealthy backer, who briefed Naijiant.com on conditions of anonymity, refused to specify the type of violence he meant. However, considering the politicians involved with the coalition, including Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, etc, this may a threat in a similar vein to what then presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari said in 2011 that “dogs and baboons will be soaked in blood” if there were electoral malpractices. At least 500 Nigerians were reported to have died from the violence that followed that (s)election which Buhari lost. This type of violence has historically been concentrated in the north, involving the use of street kids, known as “almajiri”.
Considering the trend of military interventions in West African states such as Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali, and the popularity of those coups in those countries, we are not sure if a violent removal of Tinubu from office by military personnel with links to the opposition coalition is part of the plan.
However, the president is covering all his bases. He is well aware of the unpopularity of his regime in the face of rising poverty, insecurity and and a groundswell of opinion that he has been an abject failure that makes even his hapless predecessor Buhari look good. Our source said “Tinubu knows he can’t win fairly and is planning to retain power through rigging”. He is also expecting a huge outcry after the (s)election. His focus on returning to power has to be balanced against his desire to install his son, Seyi, as the governor of Lagos State in 2027.
The president knows that to pull off such a feat would require large scale electoral fraud supported by the machinery of state. As a result, the source said “Tinubu doesn’t want a war on both fronts” (at federal level and in Lagos). So he has asked the younger Tinubu to shelve his governorship ambitions for now. The president’s plan is to replace the current Lagos State governor Jide Sanwo-Olu with his predecessor Akinwunmi Ambode, who had ruled for one term. Ambode will then get a second term keeping the seat in Government House Alausa, Lagos warm for Seyi Tinubu to occupy in 2031.
